What If Ron Paul Won Virginia?

This GOP primary race just keeps getting more interesting. Thanks to our own incompetence, we are now down to a two horse race in Virginia. A race between a crazy little Shetland pony and a fancy trotter. Both of them are pretty slow.


So which one of them will to win? Well that depends on who you ask of course, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that it will be Ron Paul. I think that the ones who didn't make the ballot cut are about to pull a Tonya Harding on the trotting Romney.

But forget about that for a second.

Even without the attacks that are sure to come, Ron Paul has a legitimate chance of winning.

Just off the top of my head:

Newt is at 30%, Bachmann is 6%, Perry 6%, Rick Santorum at 2 or 3%, and the the other guy is at around 1%. I am no mathematician, but I am pretty sure that these alone add up to a greater sum than Romney's 25%. And that is not even counting what Paul is already pulling in the polls.

That means that Paul could actually win.

But here is the kicker. Any Virginia voter who has made up their mind to vote for someone besides Mitt Romney will try to cripple the him because he is biggest threat to their candidate. Paul is no threat to anyone, and everyone knows it.

It now behooves every single person in Virginia -- not supporting Mitt -- not to sit home and sulk, but to go vote for Ron Paul. If your basketball team got bumped to the loser's bracket, wouldn't you be rooting on the worst teams to win?

Plus it would benefit all of the other candidates to lay off each other, and start attacking him as well. They may be out but they can still help deny Romney a win.

I can see them standing in unison now saying, "if you don't want to end up with Romney, you have better get out there and vote for Ron Paul."

Wouldn't that be funny?

So where does that leave the rest if Paul wins all sixty delegates in the winner take all state.

The answer is that this would be devastating for both Newt and Romney. They were both going to come in the top four in Iowa and then be in great position to fight it out in Virgina. With the winner carrying momentum going into Florida, and more than likely leaving the rest of the field in the dust.

Now it is anyone's game again. That whopping ten percent of the total primary delegates could now be wasted on Ron Paul - someone who can't win. Romney could lose all of his MOJO by having to face the stigma of losing a one-on-one race with a first class nut.

To make it worse for Newt/Romney, Michele Bachman, Perry or even Rick Santorum could potentially end up as the number two horse heading into Florida.



Iowa is not a winner take all state, and all three of the true teaparty candidates have a real chance of winning there,despite the polls. Especially Michele Bachmann who won the straw poll vote this summer.

So don't count out the true conservatives! It is neck and neck again.
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Update -- Here are the Virginia primary poll numbers, with some interesting questions.

Polls (RCP)

Gingrich 30%
Romney 25%
Paul 9%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Huntsman 4%
Santorum 3%

49% left without a candidate

If they split what is left (Romney 49%, Paul 33%)

Question: If you really wanted Newt Gingrich to win the GOP nomination, and you lived in Virginia, who would you vote for?

Who is going to be the biggest threat to Newt?

Could the Newt voters block a win in Virginia by the biggest threat by voting for the weaker candidate?

Now ask the same question for each of the candidates who failed to make the ballot.

What would be the outcome if all the jilted voters voted for the candidate that was least likely to defeat whoever they happen to be in love with?

Paul 58%
Romney 25%

Kinda scary! Huh?